住建部定调：十五五房产转型升级！未来5年，买房只看3个核心指标

Core Insights - The real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from a focus on property appreciation to prioritizing quality of life and practical living conditions [1][11] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has outlined a three-step plan for the future of the real estate sector, emphasizing debt clearance, inventory digestion, and structural reshaping [2][5] Group 1: Market Transformation - The shift in buyer inquiries from investment potential to practical living conditions indicates a fundamental change in market sentiment [1] - The inventory clearance cycle for new residential properties has reached a historical high of 27.4 months, indicating increasing inventory pressure and a slow market digestion rate [1] - The government aims to gradually clear old debts and inventory rather than implementing immediate market rescue measures, signaling a change in industry regulations [2] Group 2: Steps for Market Recovery - The first step involves debt clearance and inventory digestion, which will take considerable time and may lead to the collapse and restructuring of problematic real estate companies [3] - The second step, expected to begin around 2026, focuses on stabilizing the market by adjusting land supply based on population and housing demand, moving away from previous practices of excessive land supply [4] - The third step will involve structural reshaping, where differentiation between desirable and less desirable properties will become more pronounced, affecting their marketability and pricing [4] Group 3: Key Indicators for Buyers - The first indicator for potential buyers is the population and industry dynamics of a city, as these factors determine long-term property value [7][8] - The second indicator is the availability of essential amenities such as schools, hospitals, and transportation, which significantly influence property usability and market value [7][8] - The third indicator is the quality of the property and the reputation of the developer, as buyers are now more cautious due to past issues with unfinished projects [8] Group 4: Future Market Dynamics - The expected annual growth rate of property prices may decline to between 0% and 3%, contrasting with the previous average growth of 5% to 10% over the last two decades [11] - The importance of a property's usability and surrounding environment will increase, as buyers prioritize comfort and convenience over speculative investment [11][12] - The relationship between new and second-hand properties will shift, with second-hand homes gaining importance as new supply decreases [12]