AMD Is Almost Sold Out of CPUs for 2026. Does That Make AMD Stock a Buy Now?

Core Viewpoint - KeyBanc analyst John Vinh has raised his rating on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to "Overweight," predicting a 23% increase in stock price to an all-time high of $270 over the next 12 months driven by hyperscaler demand [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - AMD shares closed nearly 6.5% higher on January 13 following the rating upgrade by KeyBanc [1]. - The stock is currently down more than 15% compared to its 52-week high, but the report provides a strong reason for investors to remain committed to AMD [2]. - Other Wall Street analysts are even more bullish, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a mean target price of about $286, indicating a potential upside of another 30% [8]. Group 2: Demand and Revenue Projections - Vinh highlights that AMD is nearly sold out of server CPU capacity for 2026, which supports his bullish outlook [3]. - The demand for AMD's MI355 and MI455 accelerators is expected to drive AI-related revenue up to $15 billion this year, with AI chips projected to account for at least one-third of total revenue [4][5]. - AMD is considering a price increase of up to 15% in the first quarter, which could help recover some of the stock's lost value [3]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - AMD is scheduled to report its Q4 financials in early February, with consensus expectations for a 25% year-over-year earnings growth to $1.10 per share [5]. - The company has authorization to repurchase approximately $10 billion worth of its stock in 2026, enhancing its attractiveness as a long-term investment [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The longer-term relative strength index (100-day) for AMD is around 54, suggesting that the recent rally may still have momentum [6].