Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-15 23:51Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that A-shares are expected to see significant incremental capital in 2026, potentially sustaining a slow bull market [1][5] Group 1: Long-term Capital - Long-term capital is identified as a core source of incremental funds, with insurance premium income continuing to grow significantly, leading to an increase in equity allocation to 15.5% by Q3 2025, close to historical highs [2] - The combination of insurance and wealth management channels is expected to contribute over 900 billion yuan in long-term capital to the market in 2026 [2] Group 2: Public Fund Capital - The pressure for fund redemptions is believed to have passed, with public funds benefiting from net asset value recovery and a positive investment sentiment, leading to an expected net inflow of 230 billion yuan in 2026, primarily from passive funds [3] Group 3: Other Funding Channels - "National team" funds are expected to see a significant slowdown in inflows, with a projected net inflow of about 20 billion yuan in 2026, while ETFs are becoming the main allocation channel [4] - Margin trading and private equity funds remain active, with expected net inflows of 450 billion yuan from margin trading and a projected increase in private equity scale to 8.5 trillion yuan, contributing around 700 billion yuan in incremental funds [4] - Foreign capital is entering a "4.0 era," with global funds expected to strategically allocate to Chinese assets, anticipating a net inflow of about 100 billion yuan from northbound capital [4] Group 4: Market Focus in 2026 - The focus of the market in 2026 will shift towards verifying economic conditions and performance realization, with long-term capital providing a safety net and active funds reinforcing a "technology + resource" dual mainline market trend [5] - The current hot sectors in A-shares are awaiting performance realization, with thematic concepts and rebound sectors showing significant elasticity [5]