利多来袭，美豆油期价飙升！油脂板块表现分化

Group 1 - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, maintaining the initial proposal while dropping penalties on renewable fuel imports, which could lead to a significant increase in biomass diesel production [1] - Soybean oil futures surged by 3.81% following the news, while domestic vegetable oil futures also saw gains, with palm oil and soybean oil futures rising slightly [1] - The palm oil market is currently in a state of "bad news exhausted, new drivers arriving," with a focus on the potential impact of Indonesia's export tax increase on palm oil, which could enhance its competitiveness globally [2] Group 2 - Indonesia's rainy season is expected to reduce palm oil production in January and February, while strong export performance is noted, particularly with a nearly 50% year-on-year increase in exports to India [2] - The palm oil price rebound faces challenges due to higher-than-expected production in December, leading to inventory accumulation, which creates price pressure [2] - The canola oil market is primarily driven by trade policy expectations, with short-term price support from delayed imports and low inventory, but long-term supply pressures are anticipated due to improved trade relations with Canada [3] Group 3 - Domestic demand for soybean oil is strong ahead of the Spring Festival, with a forecasted decrease in soybean imports in the first quarter, supporting short-term prices [3] - The international soybean market lacks new developments, but domestic soybean oil inventories have dropped to a five-month low, providing a solid price floor [3] - Future market dynamics will focus on the speed of inventory reduction for palm oil and the balance between tight supply and policy expectations for canola oil, with potential for trend-driven movements [4]