1月16日早餐 | 央行下调再贷款、再贴现利率；台积电业绩大增

Market Overview - US stock market rebounded with major indices reversing two consecutive declines; S&P 500 rose by 0.26%, Dow Jones increased by 0.60%, and Nasdaq gained 0.25% [1] - TSMC's strong earnings boosted chip stocks, with the chip index rising nearly 2%; TSMC's US shares surged over 4%, reaching a historical high [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.60%, with notable declines in Tencent Music (down 4.9%) and Kingsoft Cloud (down 4.6%) [1] Economic Indicators - US unemployment data release led to a rapid increase in US Treasury yields; the US dollar index accelerated its rebound, reaching a six-week high [2] - Offshore RMB rebounded over 100 points, surpassing 6.97, marking a 20-month high [2] Commodity Market - Precious metals experienced a pullback; gold fell over 1% and silver dropped over 7% during intraday trading [3] - Oil prices plummeted, closing down over 4%, marking the largest decline in nearly seven months [4] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported a 35% year-on-year increase in Q4 net profit, significantly exceeding market expectations; projected capital expenditures for 2025 are $40.9 billion, with guidance for 2026 raised to $52-56 billion [17] - The semiconductor industry is expected to see continued demand, with TSMC planning to raise wafer foundry prices over the next four years due to ongoing supply shortages [20] Storage Sector - Bernstein analysts highlighted an unprecedented storage supercycle driven by AI, raising SanDisk's target price from $300 to $580 [21] - The average selling prices of NAND and DRAM are experiencing sharp increases due to supply-demand imbalances [22] Carbon Fiber Development - A breakthrough in high-performance T1000-grade carbon fiber has been achieved, enhancing China's competitiveness in high-end materials [23] - The carbon fiber industry is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating that by 2030, China's carbon fiber capacity will exceed 250,000 tons, capturing over 50% of global demand [23] Power Grid Investment - The State Grid's 14th Five-Year Plan anticipates fixed asset investments of 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on green transformation and new power systems [24] New Stock Offerings - Hengyun Chang, a semiconductor equipment supplier, is set to launch an IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with a subscription price of 92.18 yuan per share [25]