Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-16 00:16Core Viewpoint - On January 14, the minimum margin requirement for margin trading on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges was raised from 80% to 100%, reflecting a regulatory counter-cyclical adjustment policy aimed at guiding the market to reduce leverage appropriately and stabilize investor expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Margin Requirement Adjustment - The increase in the margin requirement applies only to new margin trading contracts, while existing and extended contracts remain unaffected, aiming to guide the market to reduce leverage amid a phase of active margin trading [2]. - Historical context shows that a similar adjustment in 2015 raised the margin requirement from 50% to 100% to quickly reduce systemic risk after rapid market fluctuations, indicating that the current adjustment serves a similar purpose of stabilizing market expectations [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Regulatory Intent - The current adjustment occurs within a controlled leverage environment, contrasting with the high-risk phase of 2015, as the average collateral maintenance ratio is approximately 288%, indicating a solid safety cushion for margin clients [3]. - The policy aims to prevent excessive leverage from reinforcing itself during market uptrends, with ongoing improvements in market systems and the entry of long-term funds [3][4]. Group 3: Market Activity and Implications - As of January 13, the margin balance reached 2.67 trillion yuan, with a net increase of over 140 billion yuan since the end of the previous year, accounting for 2.58% of the A-share market capitalization and 10.93% of trading volume [4]. - The adjustment in margin requirements is expected to stabilize market operations and reduce the pace of short-term leverage expansion, with the average collateral maintenance ratio indicating that the impact on existing financing demand will be limited [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is currently valued at a historical low, with public fund holdings at a low level, suggesting a healthy chip structure [5]. - The performance of brokerages is expected to be positively correlated with trading volume, and leading brokerages are well-positioned to benefit from policy space in capital replenishment and comprehensive operations [5]. - As of January 14, the average PB valuation for major brokerages was 1.49x for A-shares and 0.98x for H-shares, indicating significant mid-term investment value [5].