Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-16 00:23Core Viewpoint - In December, new RMB loans and new social financing slightly exceeded market expectations but showed a year-on-year decrease, indicating a continued divergence in financing demand between enterprises and households, primarily reflecting accelerated financing related to infrastructure while household loan demand remains under pressure due to real estate market challenges [1] Summary by Relevant Sections New RMB Loans and Social Financing - December new RMB loans amounted to 910 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 800 billion yuan, but showing a year-on-year decrease of 800 billion yuan, keeping the loan balance year-on-year growth rate stable at 6.4% [3] - New social financing in December was 2.21 trillion yuan, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.9 trillion yuan, but down 6.457 billion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing from 8.5% in November to 8.3% [5] Corporate and Household Loan Dynamics - Corporate loan financing accelerated in December, likely due to the implementation of new policy financial tools and local government debt limits, with corporate loans increasing by 580 billion yuan year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate rising from 8.8% in November to 9.1% [1][4] - In contrast, household loan demand remained weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.511 billion yuan in December, and the year-on-year growth rate of household loans slowing from 1.1% in November to 0.5% [1][4] Government Debt and Fiscal Deposits - The net issuance of government bonds in December decreased significantly by 1.07 trillion yuan year-on-year due to a high base effect, while fiscal deposit growth accelerated, indicating that the government may be reserving funds for economic stimulus in the first quarter of 2026 [2] Monetary Indicators - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 decreased from 4.9% in November to 3.8% in December, while M2 growth increased from 8.0% to 8.5%, indicating a mixed picture of liquidity in the economy [6] Future Outlook - The focus will be on the strength of credit growth in early 2026, the impact of the central bank's expansion of relending quotas, and the pace of fiscal fund disbursement, as well as the potential recovery of household purchasing intentions in the real estate market [3]