张尧浠：金价多头减弱高位震荡、前景预期仍是蓄力待发

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a high-level fluctuation, with a short-term expectation of adjustment and decline, but the bullish outlook remains unchanged [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4629.55 per ounce, reached a high of $4632.20, and a low of $4581.25, closing at $4615.70, with a daily fluctuation of $50.95 and a decline of $13.85, or 0.3% [3]. - The market was influenced by a pullback pressure from the previous day's trading and reduced safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding Iran [3]. - The unexpected decrease in initial jobless claims strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would remain inactive for several months, further limiting bullish momentum for gold [3]. Future Outlook - On January 16, gold is expected to face downward pressure due to resistance from previous trading sessions and overall negative data expectations, but the long-term bullish outlook remains intact [3][5]. - Key upcoming data includes the U.S. December industrial production month-on-month rate and the January NAHB housing market index, with mixed market expectations [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices are strong, recovering from previous declines and potentially opening a new bull market with a target range of $5500 to $6000 if the upward momentum continues [8]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold has regained previous losses and is expected to continue rising towards the $4700 mark in the coming weeks [8]. - Daily analysis suggests a potential adjustment towards the 10-day moving average around $4545 and the middle band at $4475, with bullish entry opportunities if these support levels are reached [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, key support levels are at $4580 or $4555, while resistance levels are at $4635 or $4650 [10]. - For silver, support levels are at $89.15 or $87.30, with resistance at $93.00 or $94.10 [11].