中州期货：铁矿石面临回落压力

Group 1 - The current winter season has led to a significant decline in construction activities in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, particularly in northern regions due to low temperatures and frequent rain and snow, resulting in a traditional off-peak season for construction steel consumption [1] - Market focus is on the winter storage process, with some steel mills in Northeast and North China implementing winter storage policies, although traders generally have a pessimistic outlook on future consumption, leading to low enthusiasm for winter storage [1] - As of January 9, 247 steel mills reported a total pig iron output of 2.295 million tons, marking a three-week consecutive increase, but overall profits for steel mills remain low, particularly for hot-rolled coils, which are in a loss-making state, limiting the potential for increased pig iron output [1] Group 2 - As of January 9, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at 47 national ports reached 170.44 million tons, the highest seasonal level in recent years, while global major mining companies are steadily releasing production capacity [2] - BHP's iron ore production in Western Australia reached a record 257 million tons in the 2025 fiscal year, with production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year set between 251 million and 262 million tons, maintaining levels similar to the previous year [2] - Vale's S11D project expansion is progressing steadily, with an expected additional capacity of 20 million tons, aiming for full production in the second half of 2026, and a target of 335 million to 345 million tons for 2026 iron ore production, an increase of approximately 5 million tons from 2025 [2] Group 3 - Rio Tinto's West Pilbara iron ore project is designed to compensate for resource depletion in the Pilbara region, with a planned annual capacity of 25 million tons, expected to be fully operational by June 2025, and production is anticipated to grow in 2026 compared to 2025 [3] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the largest undeveloped high-grade iron ore resource globally, is set to ship its first batch of 200,000 tons by December 2025, with a target production of 5 to 10 million tons in 2026 [3] - Non-mainstream iron ore projects are also contributing to production increases, with the Onslow iron ore project expected to achieve stable production in early 2026, projecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 7 million tons [3] Group 4 - The steel market is currently in a traditional off-peak season, with weak downstream consumption expectations and low enthusiasm for winter storage among traders, which will suppress the upward trend of steel prices [4] - Low profit margins for steel mills are limiting the potential for increased pig iron output, leading to weak growth in iron ore consumption [4] - Port inventories are at historically high levels, and the total supply from the four major mining companies and non-mainstream miners is expected to increase year-on-year, leading to a more relaxed supply-demand balance in the iron ore market [4]