中断两年多后，马士基恢复红海航行，分析称“如果红海航线恢复，全球6%到8%集装箱船队将不再需要”

Core Viewpoint - The maritime shipping route through the Red Sea and Suez Canal is set to fully resume after a two-year interruption, with Maersk Group officially restoring its Middle East-India to East Coast USA (MECL) route, citing improved stability in the Red Sea region [1][4]. Group 1: Company Actions - Maersk Group announced the resumption of the MECL route, contingent on security conditions being met [1]. - Maersk's successful navigation of a vessel through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait marks the second successful trial since December, indicating a cautious return to the region [1]. - CMA CGM, the world's third-largest container shipping group, has also resumed operations through the Suez Canal earlier this month [4]. Group 2: Market Implications - The potential full resumption of the Red Sea route could lead to a reduction in the global container fleet by 6% to 8%, shifting market balance unfavorably for carriers [1]. - The market reacted cautiously to the news, with Maersk's ADR stock price dropping over 5%, reflecting investor concerns about increased capacity leading to lower freight rates [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The threat from Houthi forces remains, but the implementation of a ceasefire agreement has prompted Maersk's decision to return to the Red Sea [5]. - Analysts warn of ongoing volatility in the Middle East, with recent comments from U.S. President Trump regarding military intervention in Iran raising new concerns [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. government actions complicates decision-making for shipping companies, as the market awaits further moves from other carriers regarding the Red Sea route [6].