黄金4580成短期关键防线，破位警惕调整走势（2026.1.16）

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Strong U.S. employment data led to a decrease in initial jobless claims by 9,000, resulting in a seasonally adjusted total of 198,000, significantly below the expected 215,000, which pushed the U.S. dollar index to a six-week high of 99.49, closing at 99.35 with a gain of 0.28% [2] - The strengthening dollar made gold more expensive for overseas buyers, suppressing demand and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the short term, delaying the next rate cut to June, with the probability of a March cut dropping from 50% to 21.6%, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2] - Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly Trump's softened rhetoric regarding Iran, diminished expectations of escalating Middle Eastern conflicts, thereby weakening gold's safe-haven appeal [3] - Rising bond yields, driven by strong economic data, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.156% and the 2-year yield to 3.558%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold as inflation-protected securities (TIPS) reached new highs [4] - Trump's decision to retain Federal Reserve Chairman Powell alleviated market concerns about Fed leadership instability, boosting risk sentiment and further supporting the dollar's upward momentum [4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold exhibited a volatile trading pattern, closing with a long lower shadow on a bearish candle, while remaining above the 5-day moving average, suggesting a continuation of a strong consolidation phase [5] - The current upward trend in gold, which began at 3886, is characterized by a five-wave structure, with the market currently in the fifth wave, necessitating caution regarding potential pullback risks [6] - Key support levels to monitor include the 4540/4535 area, corresponding to the 10-day moving average, while initial resistance is noted at the current high of 4642/4643 [7] - The four-hour chart analysis maintains focus on the five-wave structure since the 4274 point, with the market currently within a rising channel, requiring close monitoring of the channel's performance [9] - The lower support of the channel is near 4580, which aligns with previous low points, while the upper resistance is around 4650; breaking below the channel support would lead to further attention on 4560 and 4540/4535 support levels, while a breakout above resistance would shift focus to 4661 and 4690 [9]