Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-16 01:25Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities predicts that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the investment scale in the power grid may reach around 1 trillion yuan annually, with significant growth expected in the investment from State Grid and Southern Grid in 2026 [1] Group 1: Investment Outlook - The total fixed asset investment by State Grid is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, while Southern Grid's investment is projected to be around 1 trillion yuan [1] - The anticipated investment amounts for State Grid and Southern Grid in 2026 are 700 billion yuan and 189 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.6% and 8.0% [1] Group 2: High Voltage and Main Network - By the end of 2025, State Grid plans to complete 42 high-voltage projects, with expectations for further approvals and construction of additional projects in 2026 [2] - The demand for core equipment in the power system is increasing, with a projected tender amount for State Grid's transmission and transformation equipment reaching 91.88 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.3% [2] Group 3: Distribution Network and Metering - The distribution network is expected to see significant growth, with a total tender amount of 124.57 billion yuan in 2025, driven by the demand for smart upgrades [3] - The new standards for metering equipment are expected to lead to a recovery in prices, with 2026 anticipated to be a year of simultaneous volume and price increases [3] Group 4: Global Trends and AI Demand - North America is facing a significant electricity shortfall, with AI data center (AIDC) demand projected to increase electricity consumption from 176 TWh in 2023 to between 325-580 TWh by 2028 [4] - Global electricity and grid investment is expected to reach new highs, with projections of $1.5 trillion in 2024 and over $3.3 trillion by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2025 to 2035 [4] Group 5: Export Opportunities - The overseas supply of power equipment is expected to face shortages, with delivery times for transformers and high-voltage cables in Europe and the U.S. nearly doubling [5] - In the first 11 months of 2025, exports of transformers, meters, and other electrical equipment showed significant growth, indicating a continued upward trend in 2026 [6]