谁在坚定看好铜？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly silver and small metals, with various companies experiencing substantial gains [2][3] - As of January 15, 2025, energy metal themes remain active, with gold, silver, and copper prices reaching historical highs due to tight global copper supply, trade flow restructuring from U.S. tariff expectations, and accelerated demand from AI and new energy infrastructure [3][4] - The driving forces behind the current rise in non-ferrous metal prices include supply shortages in non-U.S. regions, macroeconomic expectations, and strategic resource policies initiated by the U.S. government [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. has included copper in its critical mineral list, leading to a strategic resource reserve plan that has caused a reallocation of copper resources globally, particularly towards the U.S. market, resulting in increased expectations of supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [4][5] - Domestic policies in China are also influencing the market, with a focus on resource security and consolidation of production capacities in the non-ferrous metal sector, which is expected to slow down supply growth and support prices [6] - Analysts suggest that while copper may not fully replicate gold's safe-haven status, its price is expected to be supported by structural demand changes driven by global energy transitions [7][8] Group 3 - In 2025, both gold and copper prices experienced historic increases, with SHFE gold rising by 55.77% and SHFE copper by 33.18%, indicating a significant deviation from historical averages [9] - Despite a generally bullish outlook for future prices, some institutions caution about potential short-term overheating risks, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 copper price forecast to $12,750 per ton but expressing skepticism about sustaining prices above $13,000 [9]