2025中国经济年报｜韧性强+活力旺 透过数据看外汇市场“成绩单”

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is expected to maintain a balanced supply and demand by 2025, with strong resilience and vitality, as indicated by the projected trading volume and other metrics [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Overview - The trading volume of the foreign exchange market is projected to reach $42.6 trillion by 2025, marking a historical high [1] - The corporate foreign exchange hedging ratio is expected to rise to 30%, also a record level [1] - In 2025, the total cross-border income and expenditure for enterprises and individuals is estimated to be $15.6 trillion, reflecting a nearly 10% increase from 2024 [3] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital flows are anticipated to shift from a net outflow at the beginning of the year to a net inflow, with an expected net inflow of $302.1 billion for the year [3] - The bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus is projected to be $196.6 billion [3] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Assets - Direct foreign investment in China is expected to show a net inflow, while domestic entities are anticipated to increase their foreign investments [5] - By the end of September 2025, China's foreign assets and liabilities are projected to reach $11.5 trillion and $7.5 trillion, respectively, both historical highs [5] - The foreign exchange reserves are expected to remain stable, with an estimated year-end balance of $3357.9 billion [5] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level [5]