“股汇联动”失灵！亚洲市场正出现罕见裂痕

Core Viewpoint - The correlation between Asian stock markets and currencies has weakened, prompting global investors to reassess their investment strategies in the region [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index and the Bloomberg Asian Dollar Index have seen their 30-day correlation drop below zero for the first time since September 2024 [1]. - Many markets in the region are experiencing a divergence where domestic stock markets are reaching record highs while local currencies are weakening [1]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea surged by 76% in 2025, significantly outperforming global peers, yet the Korean won has recently fallen to a near 17-year low [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Two independent forces are driving the stock and currency markets: the AI boom is boosting stock prices, while currency values are under pressure from capital outflows and interest rate cuts by several Asian central banks [1]. - The expectation of reduced interest rates by the Federal Reserve has diminished, impacting currency movements more than stock performance [2]. Group 3: Hedging Strategies - Institutions like Vantage Point Asset Management and Berenberg are considering adding hedging tools for their Asian asset positions, as the cost of hedging has decreased to an average of 0.31%, close to a one-year low [4]. - The current market conditions suggest that while stock markets may have room for further gains, there is a pressing need to hedge risks due to potential currency fluctuations [4]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Some institutions remain relatively calm, suggesting that while currency pressures are important, they do not significantly impact the outlook for stocks in export-oriented economies [5]. - The AI infrastructure investment boom is viewed as the largest variable influencing the future direction of Asian stock markets, with expectations of continued upward momentum in 2026 [5].