暴涨的尽头是反噬？白银“扼杀”光伏需求，牛市盛宴暗藏自毁机制

Group 1 - The surge in silver prices is putting additional pressure on solar panel manufacturers, who are already struggling to end over two years of losses in a highly competitive industry [1] - Spot silver prices recently reached a historical high of over $93 per ounce, causing the silver content in solar panels to rise to 29% of total costs, up from 3.4% in 2023 and 14% last year [1] - Manufacturers are responding by raising prices and accelerating plans to replace silver with cheaper materials like copper [1] Group 2 - Major solar companies have warned of expected net losses again in 2025, indicating that despite a year of self-discipline and government-led efforts to curb overcapacity, the industry's downturn has not yet bottomed out [2] - The average silver usage per watt in solar panels is projected to decrease from 11.2 mg in 2024 to 8.96 mg in 2025 as manufacturers strive to reduce costs [2] - Companies like Longi Green Energy, Jinko Solar, and Shanghai Aiko Solar are beginning to replace silver with cheaper metals in their panels [2] Group 3 - Limited replacement efforts and a slowdown in global solar panel installations may lead to a 17% reduction in silver usage in the industry this year, with a projected demand of around 6,000 tons in 2025 [3] - The solar industry accounted for approximately 17% of total silver demand last year, more than double its share a decade ago, which poses a risk to the sustainability of the current surge in silver prices [3] - Strong investment demand is expected to keep silver prices stable in the short term, but reduced industrial consumption of silver is anticipated in the future [3]