Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-16 02:49Core Insights - The article highlights the challenges faced by Apple as TSMC's largest customer due to the rising demand for advanced packaging capacity from competitors like NVIDIA and AMD, leading to significant increases in foundry prices and a shift in capacity allocation dynamics [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - TSMC's revenue growth reached $122 billion in the previous year, a 36% increase, while NVIDIA's sales are projected to surge by 62% by January 2026 [3] - Apple's product revenue growth is expected to be only 3.6% over the 12 months ending December 2025, indicating a stark contrast to the growth of NVIDIA and AMD [3][4] - The shift in TSMC's customer dynamics suggests that Apple is no longer the primary growth driver for TSMC, a role it held five years ago [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - TSMC's gross margin has reached an impressive 62.3%, nearing levels typically seen in software companies, reflecting its enhanced pricing power [2][4] - TSMC forecasts a revenue growth of nearly 30% for 2026, with capital expenditures expected to rise by about 32%, reaching a record $52 to $56 billion [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The evolution of technology roadmaps appears to favor NVIDIA and AMD, indicating that Apple will need to compete for capacity in the near term [5][8] - TSMC's most advanced 2nm process is currently in production, with Apple as a major buyer, but upcoming nodes are expected to focus more on high-performance computing (HPC) needs [5][8] Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Despite the competitive pressures, Apple's broad product line across TSMC's multiple fabs provides a level of stability that is still valuable to TSMC [9][10] - TSMC's CEO has expressed concerns about the company's expansion pace and the associated risks, particularly regarding depreciation costs, which are significantly higher than those of its fabless competitors [9]