老乡鸡三冲IPO续命！估值腰斩、家族控股，安徽大食堂困局难破

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lao Xiang Ji, is facing significant challenges as it attempts its fourth IPO, with its valuation halved and a heavy reliance on its home market of Anhui, which is becoming a limiting factor for growth [3][5][15]. Group 1: IPO Attempts and Valuation - Lao Xiang Ji has made three previous attempts to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, following unsuccessful attempts in A-shares and two prior attempts in Hong Kong, indicating a desperate need for capital [3][5]. - The company's valuation has dropped from an expected 18 billion yuan to 9 billion yuan over three years, reflecting a significant loss of investor confidence [3][5]. Group 2: Business Model and Growth - The proportion of franchise stores has surged to 45.5%, indicating a shift from a fully-owned model to a franchise model, which raises concerns about quality control and brand integrity [5][7]. - Despite reporting revenue of 4.578 billion yuan and a net profit of 371 million yuan in the first eight months of 2025, there are suspicions that this growth may be inflated [5][11]. Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - The company has become overly reliant on its home market, with over 86% of its stores located in Anhui, leading to a lack of geographical diversification and potential market saturation [7][11]. - The heavy asset model that works in Anhui is proving ineffective in larger cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where logistics and management costs are significantly higher [9][11]. Group 4: Governance and Regulatory Issues - The company is controlled by the family of its founder, holding over 90% of the shares, which raises governance concerns among potential investors [9][11]. - Previous issues, such as an 80 million yuan social security debt and food safety violations, have tarnished the company's reputation and may deter foreign investment [11][15]. Group 5: Market Trends - The current market trend favors value-for-money offerings, contrasting with the company's previous focus on premium pricing, which may hinder its competitiveness [12][15].