CA Markets：美元指数横盘震荡，美联储政策与中东局势双重博弈

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing narrow fluctuations due to a complex interplay of factors, including diverging expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and changes in global liquidity conditions [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction remains a key variable influencing the dollar index, with recent FOMC meeting minutes revealing significant internal divisions among officials regarding the path for interest rate cuts in 2026 [3]. - Hawkish officials argue that core PCE inflation remains at 2.3%, above the 2% target, and advocate for limiting rate cuts to 50 basis points, while dovish officials suggest initiating cuts in the first half of the year, potentially totaling 75-100 basis points [3][4]. - Market consensus has shifted towards expectations of a more accommodative Fed, with a 62% probability of a rate cut by March 2026 and a 58% chance of a total cut of 75 basis points for the year, reflecting a growing belief in policy easing [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are providing support for the dollar index, with recent U.S. sanctions on Iran aimed at curbing its oil exports contributing to increased risk premiums [5][6]. - The sanctions have led to a 1.2% rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude futures reaching $79.8 per barrel, as market participants seek safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical risks [6]. - Historical trends indicate a strong positive correlation between Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and the dollar index, as the dollar attracts cross-border capital during periods of regional instability [7]. Group 3: Liquidity Conditions - Changes in global and domestic liquidity conditions are adding another layer of complexity to the dollar index's movements, with the People's Bank of China conducting a significant reverse repo operation to address pre-Spring Festival liquidity pressures [8][10]. - The interbank market's DR007 rate has remained above 2.4%, indicating tight liquidity conditions ahead of the holiday, which has led to increased demand for dollar financing among domestic institutions [10]. - The ongoing reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and high LIBOR rates reflect tightening offshore dollar liquidity, further supporting the dollar index amid seasonal demand fluctuations [10].