Core Insights - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a significant shift from rapid growth to intense competition, with many brands struggling to maintain profitability as the market approaches saturation [2][11][24]. Industry Overview - The tea beverage market has seen a surge in the number of listed companies, with brands like Gu Ming, Mi Xue Ice City, and Ba Wang Tea Sister joining the ranks, bringing the total to six publicly traded companies [2]. - Mi Xue Ice City has expanded to an impressive 47,000 global stores, while Gu Ming has become the second tea brand to reach 10,000 stores [2]. - The market growth rate is projected to slow down significantly, with an expected increase of only 6.4% in 2025, compared to over 20% in previous years [11]. Market Dynamics - The competition has intensified, leading to a phenomenon where many stores are closing or struggling to find tenants, with rental prices dropping by 30% in some areas without attracting new businesses [10][11]. - The average density of tea beverage stores is high, with one store for every 700 people in the target demographic of 15-35 years old [11]. Financial Performance - Major tea brands have reported substantial revenue growth, with Mi Xue Group achieving a revenue increase of 39.3% to 14.87 billion yuan and Gu Ming's revenue rising by 41.2% to 5.66 billion yuan [15][17]. - Despite overall revenue growth, many franchisees are experiencing declining profit margins due to increased competition and the impact of the delivery service wars [20][21]. Delivery Wars Impact - The fierce competition among delivery platforms has led to significant spending, with approximately 65 billion yuan burned in the third quarter alone, benefiting tea brands through increased order volumes [13][14]. - However, the profitability of individual stores is under pressure, as the shift towards delivery often results in lower profit margins compared to in-store sales [20][21]. Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly adopting a speculative approach, focusing on new brands with the potential for high returns, while established brands are seen as less profitable [24][25]. - The emergence of new brands and trends, such as Thai milk tea, is driving interest among franchisees, who are eager to capitalize on the next big opportunity [27][28]. Consumer Behavior - The delivery wars have changed consumer habits, with a growing preference for ready-to-drink beverages, which may have long-term benefits for the industry [23]. - However, there are concerns that the price sensitivity created by heavy discounting during the delivery wars could persist even after subsidies are reduced [21].
“最热闹的地方都不一定能赚到钱了”，茶饮离规模天花板还有多远？