Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently in a consolidation phase around the 0.6700 level after rising for two consecutive trading days, with market sentiment being cautious due to the uncertain future policy direction of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1] - Consumer inflation expectations in Australia remain high at 4.6%, indicating ongoing concerns among households regarding price pressures, with market pricing suggesting a 27% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the RBA in February, increasing to 76% by May [3] - Overall inflation in Australia slowed to 3.4% year-on-year in November, the lowest level since August, but still above the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%, making a shift to a more accommodative policy unlikely in the short term [3] Group 2 - The strong performance of the US dollar on Thursday limited further gains for the AUD, as the latest initial jobless claims data from the US showed a decrease to 198,000, which was better than expected and reinforced market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates [3] - The divergence in monetary policy expectations between Australia and the US is not significant at this time, leading to a temporary stabilization of the AUD/USD pair as the market awaits more economic data for direction [4]
Vatee外汇：澳元受通胀预期支撑，但上行空间预计有限
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-16 03:55