【UNforex财经事件】通胀与就业支撑谨慎立场 美联储“暂停观察”信号强化

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious stance on interest rate cuts despite President Trump's calls for faster easing, emphasizing that inflation remains above target and the labor market is resilient [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed a consensus on pausing rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stating that guiding inflation back to the 2% target is a core task [1]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmidt reiterated opposition to further rate cuts, suggesting that a moderate cooling of the labor market could help mitigate inflation risks [1]. - Some previously dovish officials, such as San Francisco Fed President Daly and Philadelphia Fed President Harker, have shifted their positions to support maintaining current rates [1]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - Recent macroeconomic data supports the Fed's cautious approach, with December unemployment slightly decreasing to 4.4% and initial jobless claims falling to 198,000, indicating a stable job market [2]. - Inflation indicators remain elevated, with key inflation data close to 3%, significantly above the 2% long-term target, leading the market to view an extended observation period as prudent [2]. - The market now perceives a low likelihood of rate cuts before June, with a noticeable slowdown in the expected pace of easing throughout the year [2]. Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The stabilization of interest rate expectations has led to a strong performance of the US dollar, which is now a primary driver in the forex market [2]. - The British pound is under pressure against the dollar, trading below 1.3400, as US employment data reinforces expectations for prolonged high rates [2]. - Despite the pound's downward pressure, its decline is somewhat limited due to positive GDP growth data from the UK, which weakens bets on a rapid shift to easing by the Bank of England [2]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The independence of the Federal Reserve remains a critical concern, with officials expressing support for Chair Powell and emphasizing that policy decisions should be based on data rather than political influence [3]. - The forex market has largely adjusted to the expectation of a pause in rate cuts, with the dollar's strength reflecting the inertia of stable rate expectations rather than the beginning of a new trend [3]. - In the absence of new policy signals or key data, major currency pairs are likely to continue fluctuating within established ranges, with market focus shifting to upcoming inflation data and Fed officials' statements for potential changes [3].