韩元贬值背后：韩国散户狂买海外股票

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won experienced a brief rebound at the end of 2025 due to government intervention, but it quickly returned to a depreciation trend in early 2026, primarily driven by retail investors' renewed enthusiasm for foreign stocks, especially U.S. equities [1][3][15]. Group 1: Retail Investor Behavior - South Korean retail investors net purchased $2 billion in foreign stocks within the first ten days of 2026, indicating a significant outflow of capital that could not be offset by the country's trade surplus or U.S. Treasury concerns [3][10]. - The top stocks purchased by South Korean retail investors included Tesla ($452 million), Direxion's Tesla 2x leveraged ETF ($323 million), and Alphabet Class A shares ($195 million) [8][9]. - Retail investors have become the dominant force influencing the exchange rate, with their cross-border investment behavior deeply intertwined with the future trajectory of the won [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Government Response - Despite a strong current account surplus of $12.2 billion as of November 2025, the outflow from retail investors, totaling $11 billion, significantly contributed to the financial account deficit [10][11]. - The South Korean government has attempted to support the won through verbal interventions and monetary support, but these measures have proven to be short-lived [15][17]. - A potential solution to stabilize the won could involve tax policy changes, such as reducing capital gains tax on foreign stock sales, which may encourage capital repatriation [17][18].