浦银国际：维持李宁“买入”评级 上调目标价至23.4港元

Core Viewpoint - The report from浦银国际 indicates that with the current strong market sentiment, if Li Ning's brand strength and sales show a clear upward trend, its stock price is expected to gain significant upward momentum. The firm maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning and raises the target price to HKD 23.4, equivalent to 18 times the 2026 P/E ratio [1] Group 1: 2025 Performance Expectations - The management anticipates that the performance in 2025 will exceed the company's initial guidance, with full-year revenue expected to show a slight year-on-year increase driven by rapid growth in children's clothing and professional channels [2] - The forecast for 2025 includes a revenue increase of 2.5% to RMB 29.4 billion, with a net profit of RMB 2.75 billion and a net profit margin of 9.4%. After excluding one-time impairment items from the first half, the core net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.93 billion, with a core net profit margin of 10.0% [2] Group 2: Future Trends - Li Ning is one of the few sports brands that showed a month-on-month improvement in sales in December, likely due to the launch of the Honor Gold Medal product series at the end of last year. The short-term sales performance is heavily influenced by the timing of the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, which may not provide a reliable reference [3] - With the Milan Winter Olympics approaching on February 6, the brand's exposure is expected to continue increasing, positively impacting future sales trends [3] Group 3: 2026 and Beyond Development Predictions - For 2026, management plans to moderately lower growth expectations for running and badminton categories while hoping for improved performance in basketball and sports lifestyle categories. The overall revenue growth is expected to accelerate due to continued growth in the running category [4] - The company will increase marketing expenditures in 2026, with the marketing expense ratio expected to rise year-on-year. Focusing on "Olympics + Technology," Li Ning aims to enhance brand strength and reshape its brand over the next three years, laying a foundation for long-term revenue growth [4]