2026投资风口解析：“0到1”的刺激与“1到N”的确定性

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment opportunities and risks associated with emerging sectors in 2026, emphasizing the importance of identifying "wind" sectors for investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Phases - Industries typically progress through three stages: "0 to 1," "1 to n," and "n+," with the first two stages being critical for identifying investment opportunities [1]. - The "0 to 1" stage is characterized by rapid growth but high uncertainty, while the "1 to n" stage represents a more stable growth phase [2]. Group 2: Current "0 to 1" Opportunities - Current sectors in the "0 to 1" phase include commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, and solid-state batteries, which are still in early development stages [1][2]. - The brain-computer interface market is limited, with a potential global market size of only a few billion dollars, yet companies in this space have valuations exceeding this potential [2]. Group 3: Transition to "1 to n" - Successful transition from "0 to 1" to "1 to n" can lead to super wind sectors, but failure to transition can result in investment losses [2]. - Artificial intelligence is highlighted as a sector currently in the "1 to n" phase, with significant growth potential and lower uncertainty compared to "0 to 1" sectors [3][4]. Group 4: AI and Computing Power - In the AI sector, focus should be on upstream computing power, which is essential for AI applications [5]. - The demand for computing power is expected to grow exponentially, driven by major tech companies deploying large-scale computing clusters [6]. Group 5: Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) has seen significant price increases due to advanced process expansions and rising storage prices [8]. - The growth in the semiconductor sector is linked to the need for advanced manufacturing equipment, particularly for high-performance storage chips [8][9]. Group 6: Future Trends - The "光入柜内" (optical integration into cabinets) trend is anticipated to expand the market size for optical modules significantly by 2027 [7]. - The semiconductor industry is advised to focus on upstream equipment and materials, as these areas are likely to benefit first from industry expansion [7].