Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-16 07:01Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a decline, while polysilicon futures show a significant upward trend, with the main contract reported at 50,105.0 yuan/ton, marking a substantial increase of 2.31% [1] Group 2 - In the spot market, the price of N-type polysilicon material has dropped to 54,750 yuan/ton, with the lowest delivery price also at 54,750 yuan/ton, leading to a spot premium increase to 6,080 yuan/ton [2] - Supply concerns arise as a leading polysilicon manufacturer may implement production cuts or suspensions until May, which could alleviate supply pressure if realized [2] - Demand analysis suggests that global photovoltaic new installations are expected to decline to 428 GW in 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, with the Chinese market projected to only reach 190 GW, reflecting a significant drop of 36% [2] - The industry anticipates that weak terminal demand will suppress the incremental demand for polysilicon significantly [2] - Looking ahead, short-term price support is expected between 46,000 to 48,000 yuan/ton, with ongoing policy risks affecting the market direction, leading to a forecast of price fluctuations within the range of 47,000 to 50,000 yuan/ton [2]