开源证券：企业信贷超季节性增长 信贷投放前置趋势或延续

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a significant front-loading of credit issuance in recent years, with January's credit issuance potentially reaching the highest proportion of the annual total in history. This, combined with stabilized interest rates for new corporate and personal housing loans, may drive the recovery of bank operations. Banks with strong wealth management businesses and active financial environments in key regions are expected to benefit more from the growth-stabilizing policy environment. Group 1: Credit Issuance Trends - In December, corporate credit experienced a seasonal increase, with expectations that Q1 2026 credit issuance will reach the highest level in history [1] - December saw an increase of 910 billion yuan in new RMB loans, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion yuan, with a balance growth rate of 6.4% remaining stable compared to November [1] - The front-loading of bank credit issuance is attributed to factors such as LPR reductions and intensified competition among clients, leading banks to shift some projects to the next year to avoid fierce competition at the beginning of the year [2] Group 2: Loan Structure and Demand - The total structure of corporate loans improved, while residential borrowing willingness remained weak, with corporate loans increasing by 580 billion yuan year-on-year in December [2] - Residential loans decreased by 441.6 billion yuan year-on-year in December, reflecting weak mortgage demand in an environment where housing prices have not stabilized [2] - The expectation for 2025 indicates a strong willingness for banks to issue credit at the beginning of the year, with Q1 2025 RMB loan issuance expected to account for 60% of the annual total, a trend likely to continue into 2026 [2] Group 3: Social Financing and Interest Rates - In December, social financing increased by 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan, with the growth rate declining since July [3] - The slowdown in government bond issuance in December was a significant drag on social financing, with new corporate and personal housing loan rates stabilizing at 3.10% [3] - The increase in corporate bond financing in December contributed positively to social financing growth, with new corporate bond financing reaching 154.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 170 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth in December was 8.5% year-on-year, while M1 growth fell to 3.8%, indicating a decline in M1 growth since September [4] - The increase in non-bank deposits by 2.84 trillion yuan year-on-year suggests a shift in resident deposits towards capital markets, although this trend remains to be observed [4] - The increase in fiscal deposits by 290.4 billion yuan year-on-year may indicate a reduction in fiscal spending compared to the previous year, but M1 is expected to rebound as debt work progresses in 2026 [4]