19年以来最火热的信贷市场暗流涌动! AI巨头发债狂欢或将掀起股债回调风暴

Core Viewpoint - The global credit market, particularly high-rated corporate bonds and high-yield bonds, is experiencing its hottest phase in two decades, prompting warnings from major asset management firms about potential risks associated with this bullish trend [1][4]. Group 1: Credit Market Dynamics - The yield spread on global corporate debt has narrowed to 103 basis points, the lowest level since June 2007, typically indicating strong economic growth prospects [1]. - The issuance of corporate bonds, especially by tech giants like Oracle, Microsoft, and Meta, is reaching record levels, which may lead to a significant widening of credit spreads [2][6]. - The optimism in the credit market is paradoxical, as investors are eager to capitalize on corporate bond opportunities while facing increasing potential risks from unpredictable U.S. fiscal policies and geopolitical tensions [2][5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Investors are currently demanding lower additional yield for holding junk bonds, reflecting growing optimism about economic growth and decreasing default expectations for high-yield corporate bonds [3][9]. - The surge in bond issuance has not yet triggered significant pullbacks or widening of credit spreads, contributing to a strong start for the global stock and bond markets in 2026 [7]. - However, concerns are rising regarding the sustainability of this optimism, particularly in light of potential risks such as an AI bubble crisis that could disrupt market sentiment [8][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The record levels of corporate debt issuance, particularly from tech companies, are expected to continue, with projections indicating that 2026 will see unprecedented levels of bond issuance [6]. - The heavy reliance on external financing for AI infrastructure investments poses structural risks for major cloud service providers, which could impact their financial stability [6][9]. - The market is increasingly wary of the potential for credit spreads to widen, which would indicate a shift in investor sentiment and could lead to declines in bond prices and risk assets [9][10].