强就业巩固利率走向预期，美股叙事转向哪里？

Economic Indicators - The latest data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. is 198,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week, contrasting with market expectations of an increase to 215,000, marking the second-lowest level in two years [2] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits fell by 19,000 to 1.884 million, aligning with market expectations and continuing a downward trend since October of the previous year, although still above the average level since 2022 [2] Currency and Commodities - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar index is noted, rising from 99.1 to 99.3 [4] - Oil prices have declined, with Brent crude futures dropping from $66.84 to approximately $63.63, a decrease of over 4.8% [7] - Gold prices have also retreated from above $4,630 to below $4,600 [7] Japanese Yen and Stock Market - Despite expectations of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the yen remains weak due to a significant fiscal deficit and market sentiment favoring a weaker yen for trade advantages [6][9] - Japanese stocks continue to rise, driven by the weak yen benefiting export-oriented companies, with speculation about potential early elections to push aggressive fiscal spending [9] AI and Technology Sector - TSMC reported strong Q4 2025 earnings driven by AI demand, with plans to invest $52-56 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, confirming the authenticity of AI demand through customer engagement [11] - Following TSMC's positive outlook, other suppliers in the semiconductor industry saw significant stock price increases, with Applied Materials up 5.69%, Lam Research up 4.16%, and ASML up 5.37% [12] - Wall Street's sentiment towards AI investments shifted from pessimism to optimism, with major tech stocks rebounding, influenced by TSMC's management affirming the real demand for AI [13] Investment Banking Performance - Investment banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs reported strong earnings driven by trading activities, with Morgan Stanley's investment banking benefiting from a surge in M&A and IPO activities [13] - Goldman Sachs saw a 25% year-over-year increase in equity business revenue, with significant growth in fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodity trading [13]