100万辆“斩杀线”出现，2026年中国智驾进入淘汰赛

Core Insights - The Chinese smart driving industry has reached a critical turning point in 2025, transitioning from a phase of exploration to one dominated by scale and delivery, leading to the emergence of clear "losers" in the market [1][2] - The threshold of 1 million vehicles equipped with smart driving systems is becoming a significant benchmark, with companies like Yuanrong Qixing indicating that crossing this line will be essential for survival in 2026 [3][34] Competitors - As of January 1, 2026, a comprehensive overview of domestic smart driving solution providers reveals the competitive landscape among third-party suppliers [4] - Horizon Robotics has established partnerships with over 40 automakers, including major brands like SAIC and GAC, indicating its strong market presence [6] - By the end of 2025, Horizon's HSD system saw activation in over 12,000 vehicles shortly after its launch, showcasing its rapid adoption [8] - Companies like NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto are also significant players in the self-developed smart driving systems space, alongside traditional automakers like BYD and Great Wall [11] - The industry is witnessing a convergence of technology routes, with a consensus on end-to-end architecture and multi-modal large models, leading to a more competitive environment [12] - Huawei has crossed the 1 million vehicle mark with its smart driving system, establishing a unique position in the market [12][15] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a significant number of active smart driving brands, exceeding 15, which poses sustainability challenges for the industry [12] Exiting Players - The failures of companies like Haomo and Dazhuo in 2025 highlight the industry's harsh realities, with common issues including slow technology transitions and concentrated customer bases [29][30] - The inability to deliver products on time has been a critical factor in the downfall of these companies, emphasizing the need for rapid iteration and delivery capabilities [30] - The increasing number of exiting players is attributed to mismatched technology routes and capability shortfalls, with a shift towards data-driven solutions becoming essential for survival [32] "Killing Line" Approaching - The 1 million vehicle mark is emerging as a psychological threshold, with companies below this number at risk of being pushed out of the market [34] - This benchmark represents a cash flow turning point, where companies can begin to cover core investments through revenue generated from vehicle deployments [34] - Achieving this scale also enhances data density, allowing for better coverage and problem-solving capabilities in diverse driving scenarios [35] - The lack of a standardized reporting mechanism for vehicle deployment numbers leads to inflated claims by companies, complicating the competitive landscape [35] - The true survival criteria for smart driving companies will hinge on their ability to establish data-driven development paradigms and integrate them with traditional manufacturing processes [34][39]