《黄金盘面：美元与避险的“角力场”，未来走势何去何从？》

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war, with prices fluctuating around 4605, influenced by the upcoming speeches from three Federal Reserve officials, which are expected to be pivotal in determining market direction [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current volatility in the gold market is primarily driven by the interplay between the strengthening US dollar and rising risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran [2]. - The release of US initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations, leading to a surge in the dollar index, which negatively impacted gold prices [2]. - Despite the pressure from the rising dollar, the gold market is supported by safe-haven buying due to ongoing geopolitical concerns, preventing significant declines in gold prices [2]. Group 2: Price Movements - Gold prices have been trading within a narrow range, with upper and lower boundaries at 4612 and 4590, respectively, indicating a stalemate between bullish and bearish forces [3]. - The market has shown alternating price movements, reflecting a lack of sufficient momentum from either side to break the current balance [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The speeches from Federal Reserve officials tonight are anticipated to act as a critical catalyst for market movements, with hawkish comments likely to strengthen the dollar and pressure gold prices [4]. - Conversely, any hints towards a potential rate cut could attract safe-haven investments into gold, potentially pushing prices above the 4612 resistance level [4]. Group 4: Upcoming Events - Several upcoming events could significantly impact the gold market, including developments in the US-Iran situation and the release of details related to Powell's survey on January 19 [6]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of the month is crucial, as its outcomes will directly influence the future direction of both the dollar and the gold market [6].