全球外汇市场一日纵览：美元政策信号密集释放，欧元复苏乏力，日元走向再起波澜

Group 1: USD Dynamics - The core variable for the USD remains the Federal Reserve, with recent discussions indicating heightened congressional interest in monetary policy [3] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have signaled that there is no urgent need for rate cuts, suggesting that the USD will have policy support in the short term [5] - The market is expected to experience more volatility from adjustments in expectations rather than a trend reversal [5] Group 2: EUR Challenges - The Eurozone is facing significant economic pressures, with Germany's economic growth projected at only 0.2% for 2025, highlighting a lack of momentum [6] - The European Central Bank's medium-term outlook shows inflation returning to target levels, but economic growth is expected to remain between 1.2% and 1.4%, which may not provide strong support for the Euro [6] - The Euro's performance is likely to depend more on relative stability rather than a clear strengthening [6] Group 3: JPY Outlook - The Japanese Yen is in focus due to potential interest rate stability and concerns over its weakness, with the possibility of coordinated intervention being discussed [7] - Internal divisions within the Bank of Japan suggest that interest rate hikes may occur sooner than the market currently anticipates, increasing sensitivity to news [7] - The volatility in the Yen impacts various sectors, including consumer spending and international trade [7] Group 4: Other Currencies and Regional Dynamics - Other regions are also experiencing significant developments, such as the UK delaying employment survey releases, reflecting challenges in data quality and policy judgment [8] - India aims to conclude trade negotiations with the EU by January 26, which could positively affect regional currencies and capital flows [8] - In Asia, Hong Kong's finance chief has stated there will be no reduction in stock stamp duty, while South Korea's finance minister emphasizes the need to halt excessive depreciation of the Won [8] - The overall forex market is characterized by a phase of "policy expectations driving dynamics and differentiated fundamentals" [8]