资产负债表规模究竟应该多大 美联储直面“三难困境”

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding the optimal size of its balance sheet after halting the reduction of its $6.5 trillion asset portfolio, needing to balance between a smaller size, lower interest rate volatility, and limited market intervention [1][2] Group 1: Balance Sheet Management - Researchers highlight a "trilemma" where the Fed can only achieve two of the three goals simultaneously, due to the financial sector's demand for reserves and the frequency of liquidity supply and demand shocks [1] - The Fed's balance sheet peaked at $8.9 trillion in June 2022, up from $800 billion two decades ago, driven by large-scale asset purchase programs in response to the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The Fed's Vice Chair Michelle Bowman advocates for a balance sheet as small as possible, indicating internal disagreements on how low reserves can be reduced while restoring the balance sheet to pre-crisis levels [1] Group 2: Liquidity and Market Impact - In December 2025, the Fed plans to initiate a Reserve Management Purchase program to maintain adequate reserve levels amid year-end pressures and high money market rates [2] - The trilemma emphasizes the Fed's need to decide how much liquidity changes will be absorbed through its balance sheet size, frequent market interventions, or allowed to cause interest rate volatility [2] - A large balance sheet enhances the Fed's structural influence in financial markets, creating a safe and liquid asset buffer that can prevent short-term interest rate fluctuations without frequent interventions [2]