特朗普“极限施压”，美联储1月还会降息吗？

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Justice has threatened to initiate criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, reigniting discussions about the independence of Federal Reserve policies [1] - President Trump stated on January 14 that he has no plans to remove Powell and is unconcerned about criticism from Republican lawmakers regarding the criminal investigation [1] - Several central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, issued a joint statement supporting the independence of the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Powell, emphasizing that this independence is crucial for maintaining price, financial, and economic stability [1] Group 2 - Since early 2025, Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and has criticized Powell, even threatening to dismiss him, which has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Following the interest rate cut in December, analysts suggested it might be Powell's last rate cut, with several Federal Reserve officials expressing a preference to pause further cuts [2] - The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve indicates that economic activity is growing at a moderate pace in eight out of twelve districts, while price pressures remain high due to tariffs, with businesses beginning to pass costs onto customers [2][3] Group 3 - Current high inflation provides the Federal Reserve with justification to maintain interest rates in January, with market expectations indicating a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged during the January meeting [3]