全美最大电网PJM重磅调整：严查数据中心“注水”，短期负荷预测罕见下调

Core Insights - PJM Interconnection has made contradictory adjustments to its future electricity demand forecasts, lowering short-term load predictions while raising long-term growth expectations, highlighting the uncertainty faced by grid planners amid the AI computing boom [1][4]. Group 1: Short-term Load Forecast Adjustments - PJM has reduced its peak load forecast for the summer of 2028 by 4.4 GW, a decrease of 2.6%, and similarly lowered the 2027 summer forecast by approximately 4 GW, narrowing the reserve capacity gap to about 2.6 GW [1][4]. - The forecast reduction is attributed to three main factors: stricter reviews of planned data centers and large loads, updated electric vehicle projections, and economic activity adjustments, with the large load review alone contributing a 0.7% decrease [4][5]. Group 2: Long-term Demand Growth Expectations - Despite the short-term forecast adjustments, PJM has increased its long-term electricity demand growth expectation, projecting a 3.6% annual growth rate for peak load by the summer of 2036, reaching approximately 222 GW, up from a previous estimate of 3.1% [6]. - The total growth over the next decade is expected to be around 65.7 GW, indicating a contrast between short-term adjustments and long-term optimism [6]. Group 3: Capacity Market Price Expectations - Analysts expect that capacity prices will remain high, with predictions that the clearing price for PJM's upcoming capacity auctions will easily reach around $530 per megawatt-day, despite the recent load forecast reductions [7]. - The supply-demand fundamentals remain tight, as the reserve capacity gap for the 2027 capacity year has narrowed but still indicates a supply shortage, necessitating accelerated backup procurement processes [7].