提前大选消息扰动市场！小摩：日本央行下周料按兵不动 经济展望及植田和男讲话成焦点

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain its current policy stance during the upcoming monetary policy meeting on January 23, with market focus shifting to the Economic and Price Outlook report and comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Expectations - Morgan Stanley indicates a low likelihood of action from the BOJ in the upcoming meeting, with expectations for the next rate hike to occur in April, contingent on the outcomes of spring wage negotiations [1] - The BOJ's January meeting is drawing attention due to speculation that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may dissolve the House of Representatives for early elections, leading to increased yields on Japanese government bonds and a weaker yen [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - The market anticipates that Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party may gain more votes in potential elections, reviving expectations for expansionary fiscal and monetary policies that could boost the stock market and weaken the yen [1] - Ueda is likely to face questions regarding the BOJ's response to Kishida's government's proactive fiscal policies, the depreciation of the yen, and rising government bond yields during the press conference [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The BOJ may view the recent rise in market expectations for its terminal interest rate as a positive development, despite the yen's continued weakness, indicating a potential lag behind expanding fiscal policies [2] - The BOJ has historically been cautious about rate hikes due to concerns over the impact on the financial system, and the government's reluctance to raise policy rates adds pressure on the central bank [2] - The upcoming report may include factors such as gasoline tax cuts and electricity subsidies that were not considered in the previous October report, potentially leading the BOJ to maintain its inflation forecasts while adjusting core inflation predictions [2]