四川大决策投顾：全球电网投资加快背景下，特高压高景气可期

Core Insights - The ultra-high voltage (UHV) industry is a key carrier for energy transition, driven by the urgent demand for power delivery from western renewable energy bases under the "dual carbon" goals, leading to accelerated UHV construction [1][19] - Investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain stable, with ample planned projects providing high certainty for upstream equipment performance [1][19] Group 1: UHV Construction and Demand - UHV construction aims to address the imbalance of electricity resources and demand in China, with resources concentrated in inland areas and demand in urbanized eastern coastal regions [2] - The recent peak in domestic UHV construction began in 2022, with approvals for 5, 5, 4, and 5 projects in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, driven by the demand for power delivery from renewable energy bases [9] - The National Energy Administration has emphasized the importance of grid investment for renewable energy consumption, accelerating the construction of supporting projects [9] Group 2: UHV Industry Chain - The UHV industry chain is complete, divided into three main segments: upstream (core raw materials, special insulation materials, key components), midstream (core equipment manufacturing), and downstream (final users and investors like State Grid and Southern Grid) [4] - Key players in the midstream include companies like State Grid NARI, XJ Electric, Pinggao Electric, and TBEA, focusing on both DC and AC UHV technologies [4] Group 3: Global and Domestic Investment Trends - Global UHV investment is entering an upward cycle, with a projected CAGR of 6.7% from 2021 to 2024, driven by the integration of renewable energy and aging infrastructure [6] - The State Grid's fixed asset investment plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan has increased significantly to 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on UHV DC transmission projects [13] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape of the UHV equipment market is stable, with high technical barriers and a consistent market share among core suppliers [15] - Major suppliers include State Grid NARI, XJ Electric, and China XD Electric, with significant shares in both DC and AC core equipment [16] Group 5: International Expansion Opportunities - The UHV industry is entering a significant international expansion phase, with China's mastery of core UHV technology and extensive experience in construction and operation [17] - Opportunities for international expansion are driven by demand for grid upgrades and renewable energy integration in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and in developed regions [18] Group 6: Investment Logic - The investment logic in the UHV industry is clear, with urgent power delivery needs from western renewable energy bases driving continuous construction, supported by stable investment and ample project planning during the 14th Five-Year Plan [19]