智飞生物百亿贷款求生，疫苗行业洗牌何去何从？

Group 1 - The company, Zhifei Biological, plans to apply for a medium to long-term loan not exceeding 10.2 billion yuan, with a maximum term of 3 years, to replace existing financing and supplement daily operating funds, reflecting its financial difficulties and the collective pain of the Chinese vaccine industry amid supply-demand reversals and price wars [1][5] - As of Q3 2025, the company's inventory reached 20.246 billion yuan, a 125% increase from the beginning of 2024, while accounts receivable stood at 12.814 billion yuan, totaling 33 billion yuan, which is over four times its revenue for the period, creating a significant "funding blockage" [6][7] - The company’s core product, the nine-valent HPV vaccine, has a shelf life of only 3 years, with a large number of vaccines set to expire in 2026, potentially leading to substantial bad debt provisions [6] Group 2 - The challenges faced by Zhifei Biological are indicative of a structural crisis in the vaccine industry, transitioning from a "hard-to-get" HPV vaccine market to one of oversupply due to accelerated production and domestic alternatives [7] - Sales of the nine-valent HPV vaccine began to weaken in 2024, and the company is caught in a dilemma of having to purchase stock due to high procurement agreements while being unable to sell it [7] - The overall profitability of the industry has sharply declined, with only 6 out of 17 listed vaccine companies profitable in the first half of 2025, and the industry net profit margin dropping to 9.4% [7] Group 3 - In response to the crisis, the company has set "de-inventory, receivables recovery, and debt reduction" as its core tasks for 2025 and has launched vaccination initiatives across multiple regions [8] - Long-term, the company aims to reduce its reliance on agency business and is accelerating the launch of its own products, including the 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and the quadrivalent meningococcal vaccine, which are in the listing application stage [8] - The 10.2 billion yuan loan represents both a self-rescue effort and a reflection of the cooling period in the Chinese vaccine industry, emphasizing the need to return to product fundamentals and strengthen R&D barriers [8]