Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-16 09:18Core Insights - The return of international capital to the Hong Kong market is significant, with estimates suggesting that 50% to 60% of previously exited foreign capital has returned, indicating a strong recovery in market confidence [1][3] - The Hong Kong market is expected to remain vibrant in 2025 and 2026, with a forecast of 117 new IPOs in 2025, raising a total of 285.69 billion HKD, marking a substantial increase from 2024 [6] Group 1: International Capital Flow - International long-term capital is increasingly returning to China, with participation in IPOs rising from 10%-15% in early 2024 to 85%-90% [2] - The return of foreign capital is driven by the attractiveness of Chinese technology and consumer stocks, which are gaining recognition and investment from international funds [3][4] Group 2: Market Activity and IPO Trends - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to maintain high activity levels, although the number of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong may decrease compared to 2025 [6] - The market is witnessing a shift towards independent listings, particularly in the AI sector, with expectations of more companies from the AI industry and its supply chain going public [3][6] Group 3: Market Challenges and Concerns - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding potential IPO failures, as evidenced by several new stocks experiencing significant drops in their first trading days [7] - The phenomenon of IPO failures is viewed as a temporary adjustment rather than a fundamental market shift, with recent market sentiment indicating a recovery [7]