专家：国内房价调整幅度明显超过国际水平 二手房价格已到底部

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments since 2022, with national housing prices returning to 2016 levels, raising concerns about the future direction of the market and whether it will rebound or continue to hover at the bottom [2] Group 1: Market Performance and Indicators - The adjustment in domestic housing prices has exceeded international averages, with indicators suggesting that the second-hand housing price adjustment has reached a bottom [5][6] - In 2025, the total transaction area of domestic commercial housing was approximately 890 million square meters, equivalent to levels seen in 2009, with a transaction value of about 8.4 trillion yuan, close to 2015 levels [5] - The median rental yield in 30 cities has risen to 2.06%, surpassing the interest rates of fixed deposits, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [6] Group 2: Foreseeable Trends and Predictions - The real estate market in 2026 is expected to continue experiencing a decline in sales, with new construction maintaining low levels and investment pressures remaining significant [9] - It is anticipated that the sales area of new commercial housing will decrease by 6.2% year-on-year in 2026, although the decline is expected to be less severe than in previous years [9] - The core urban areas of first-tier cities are likely to see a stable increase in housing prices over the next three to five years, driven by population inflow and industrial advantages [9][11] Group 3: Legal and Market Dynamics - The number of auctioned residential properties has decreased, which may signal a potential market recovery [7] - In 2025, the number of auctioned residential properties fell by 6.6% year-on-year, with a total transaction value of 253.62 billion yuan, reflecting a downward trend in the auction market [7][8] - Experts suggest that the current housing market has not yet reached its true bottom, with further adjustments expected in the coming years [11]