放量不涨反跌!ETF巨量流出揭秘:是慢牛变慢熊?还是主力暗中施压
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-16 10:22

Market Overview - Today's trading volume increased compared to yesterday, but there was no corresponding rise in indices or individual stocks, indicating strong selling pressure with significant outflows from major ETFs [1][3] - The market sentiment remains unclear, with a notable reduction in leverage and a general avoidance of participation during this uncertain period [1][3] Trading Strategy - The buying power has returned to over 2000, which is considered a normal median level under 3 trillion, while selling pressure remains consistent at over 1700, indicating that retail, institutional, and major funds are exiting the market [3] - If major players are determined to continue suppressing prices, the market will likely follow their lead, suggesting that participation in a downward-trending market is unwise [3][8] Sector Analysis - The sectors showing significant gains today include chips, robotics, and electric grids, while traditional heavyweight sectors are experiencing concentrated selling pressure [5] - The market is characterized as a volatile environment rather than a bull market, with a focus on technology stocks amidst a broader decline in traditional sectors [5] Investment Sentiment - The sentiment among investors is mixed, with new investors interpreting the reduction in leverage as a potential buying opportunity, while seasoned investors recognize the risks associated with current market conditions [5][8] - The likelihood of successful rebounds is low, with a 30% success rate for chasing rallies and a 50% success rate for bottom-fishing, indicating a cautious approach is advisable [8] Performance Metrics - The data indicates that the market has been under pressure, with a significant number of stocks experiencing declines, and the overall market performance reflecting a bearish trend [9]