智谱MiniMax上市一周：学会过苦日子，业绩和股票解禁是真正大考

Core Viewpoint - The market enthusiasm for the recent IPOs of Zhipu and MiniMax remains high, with significant stock price increases on their debut days, but the sustainability of their high market valuations is questioned due to extremely high price-to-sales ratios and low free float percentages [2][3]. Group 1: Market Valuation and Stock Performance - Zhipu's stock closed up 3.73% with a market capitalization of HKD 110 billion, while MiniMax surged 22.35% to a market cap of HKD 137.3 billion on their debut [2]. - MiniMax has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 250, based on projected 2025 revenue of HKD 5.5 billion, while Zhipu's P/S ratio stands at 244 with projected revenue of HKD 4.5 billion [3]. - Both companies have a very low free float, with MiniMax's true free float at 5.44% and Zhipu's at 2.67%, indicating that over 90% of their shares are locked up [3][4]. Group 2: Lock-up Periods and Future Supply - The first critical date for both companies will be the end of the lock-up period in 6 months, when nearly 50% of MiniMax's shares and 5.83% of Zhipu's shares will become available for trading [7][8]. - The second significant date will be in 12 months, when over 60% of Zhipu's non-controlling shareholders' shares will be unlocked, potentially leading to increased selling pressure [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Cost Management - Zhipu's revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 312 million, with marketing expenses exceeding revenue, raising concerns about its customer acquisition strategy [10]. - MiniMax has shown improvement in managing its sales and marketing expenses, reducing its ratio of sales expenses to revenue significantly from 274% to 73.6% over a year [10]. - Both companies face substantial R&D expenditures, with Zhipu spending HKD 15.94 billion in the first half of 2025 against revenues of HKD 1.91 billion, and MiniMax spending USD 1.8 billion against revenues of USD 1 billion [11].