未来五年供应次高峰，2026年广州商业会卷向何方？

Group 1: Market Overview - Guangzhou's commercial real estate is entering a new round of "reshuffling," with significant new supply expected in the coming years, including nearly 900,000 square meters of office space and 650,000 square meters of shopping centers by 2026 [1] - The shopping center supply is projected to reach its second-highest peak in the next five years, indicating a critical juncture for the market [1] Group 2: Office Market Dynamics - The office market is experiencing intense competition, with a notable "relocation trend" as companies seek to reduce costs and improve efficiency, leading to a net absorption of nearly 180,000 square meters in Guangzhou's Grade A office market by 2025, primarily driven by emerging business districts like International Financial City and Pazhou [5] - The average vacancy rate in the city has risen to 23.3%, with rental prices decreasing by 7.4% year-on-year, indicating overall market pressure despite localized demand spikes [9] Group 3: Emerging Trends and Demand Shifts - By 2026, an estimated 871,000 square meters of new office supply will enter the market, with a significant portion concentrated in emerging areas, suggesting increased competition and potential pricing pressures [9] - The demand landscape is evolving, with traditional sectors like finance and retail still dominant but a notable increase in leasing activity from the media and entertainment sectors, particularly gaming and new media companies, which have seen a 9 percentage point increase in leasing area share over the past year [9] Group 4: Retail Market Developments - The retail sector is undergoing a transformation, with existing malls upgrading and new players entering the market, leading to a relatively stable vacancy rate of 12.8% and an expected addition of 337,000 square meters of retail space by 2025 [10] - A significant influx of 650,000 square meters of new shopping centers is anticipated in 2026, marking a qualitative shift and reshaping the retail landscape [10][12] Group 5: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - The emergence of a "multi-center" retail landscape is becoming a reality, with new commercial hubs complementing each other and enhancing the overall commercial structure in Guangzhou [12] - The ongoing reshuffling in the commercial real estate sector is expected to eliminate outdated models and promote refined management, innovative experiences, and deeper integration with consumers, leading to a more resilient and vibrant commercial map for Guangzhou [12]