BHP(US:BHP) Benzinga·2026-01-16 11:51Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto and Glencore are considering a spin-off of coal assets as part of discussions surrounding a potential $200 billion merger, highlighting the complexities of integrating their diverse portfolios and investor bases [1]. Group 1: Spin-off Considerations - Glencore's coal operations contribute approximately 8% to the combined group's EBITDA of $45.6 billion, indicating a significant standalone value in the tens of billions [2]. - A potential solution involves creating an ASX-listed vehicle for coal, similar to BHP's South32 demerger, which would allow the merged entity to maintain economic value while providing clearer exposure to critical metals [3]. - Glencore has already initiated a spin-off process by restructuring its coal assets into a separate subsidiary, with reports suggesting that other commodities like chrome, vanadium, and manganese may also be included in the spin-off [4]. Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper has emerged as a key catalyst for the merger discussions, with prices exceeding $13,000 per ton, making the addition of copper to investment portfolios increasingly urgent [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a potential 50% increase in copper demand by 2040, driven by electrification and energy transition infrastructure, amidst concerns over supply growth and structural deficits [5]. - A merged Rio-Glencore entity would control about 7% of global copper output, positioning it as a dominant player in the market [6]. Group 3: Advisory and Market Response - Macquarie Capital is advising Rio, with JPMorgan and Allens supporting transactions, while Citi is advising Glencore [7]. - Under UK takeover rules, Rio has until February 5 to make a formal offer or withdraw from negotiations [7]. - In premarket trading, Rio Tinto shares fell by 1.54% to $65.01, while Glencore shares increased by 0.77% [7].