有人预测：2026上半年，中国楼市将出现3大“变化”，早做准备

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is expected to experience significant changes by 2026, with a focus on differentiation in property values based on city and property quality [3][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The overall real estate market is likely to continue "bottoming out" in 2025, with potential for slight recovery in 2026, particularly in first-tier and strong second-tier cities [3][8]. - Property prices are expected to diverge, with "good cities + good properties" being more resilient to price declines, while weaker cities and assets will face greater challenges [7][10]. Group 2: Sales Dynamics - There is a shift towards the sale of completed properties, as trust in pre-sale properties has diminished due to issues like project delays and quality concerns [14][18]. - The government is emphasizing the importance of "good properties" in its policies, which will lead to increased competition based on quality, community amenities, and service standards [10][18]. Group 3: Policy and Financial Environment - The policy direction aims to stabilize the real estate market rather than incite another price surge, with measures including easing purchase restrictions and maintaining a loose monetary environment [22][28]. - Financial support is expected to continue, with low mortgage rates and down payment ratios, but the focus will be on stabilizing prices rather than driving them up [24][30]. Group 4: Recommendations for Buyers - Buyers are advised to focus on first-tier and strong second-tier cities, avoiding impulsive purchases in weaker markets [12][33]. - When considering properties, buyers should prioritize completed homes or newer second-hand properties, and assess the reputation and financial stability of developers [20][37]. - Financial prudence is emphasized, with recommendations to keep monthly mortgage payments within a manageable percentage of household income [40].