鲍威尔手握“王牌”！特朗普改造美联储还得看他脸色？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as he contemplates his future amid pressures from the Trump administration and potential threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Group 1: Powell's Position and Decisions - Powell, at 72, is faced with a choice between returning to personal interests or remaining at the Federal Reserve to protect its independence from the Trump administration [1]. - His term as Chairman ends in May, but he has two more years on the Board, allowing him to influence monetary policy and significant changes [1]. - Powell has not disclosed his future plans, focusing instead on his remaining duties as Chairman [1]. Group 2: External Pressures and Risks - Recent events have highlighted risks for the Federal Reserve, including threats of criminal charges against Powell from the Justice Department, which he views as an attempt to exert pressure on monetary policy [2]. - Powell's unusual video address, which has garnered nearly 1.2 million views on YouTube, marks a significant response to ongoing pressure from Trump [2]. - The relationship between Powell and Trump has been fraught, with Trump publicly criticizing Powell shortly after his appointment [5][7]. Group 3: Institutional Dynamics - If Powell chooses to remain on the Board after his Chairmanship, it would break a long-standing precedent where former Chairs typically resign [4]. - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members with staggered 14-year terms, designed to limit presidential appointments [4]. - The balance of power within the Board is crucial, as the appointment of new members by Trump could significantly influence future policy decisions [6][9]. Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing scrutiny and potential changes in the Federal Reserve's structure could lead to new rules and pressures affecting its operations [3][6]. - Powell's decision to stay could mean enduring significant pressure, but it may also be seen as a necessary step to maintain the Fed's independence [5][11]. - The upcoming months will be critical for Powell and the Federal Reserve as they navigate these challenges and the implications for U.S. monetary policy [8][11].