出口退税逐步取消，产业链“抢出口”推高碳酸锂价格

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will eliminate the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products and lithium battery products starting from April 1, 2026, with a transitional reduction in the rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026, followed by a complete cancellation in 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The policy aims to reduce trade friction, promote industrial upgrading, and prevent "involution and externalization" of competitive advantages in the lithium battery sector [2][8]. - The expected impact on export VAT rebates is approximately $22 billion in 2026 and $66 billion in 2027, based on projected export growth rates [9]. - The transition period allows companies to adjust prices to mitigate the impact, potentially leading to a surge in exports before the policy takes full effect [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The lithium battery export market is experiencing a shift from a traditional off-peak season to a peak season due to the new policy, which is expected to drive demand [3]. - A "scramble for goods" is occurring throughout the lithium battery supply chain, with companies preparing to increase production and stock up before the policy changes [4]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged significantly, with a year-to-date increase of 37.25% as of mid-January 2026, indicating strong market demand [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Strategy - The policy is designed to guide companies away from price competition and towards technological upgrades and brand building, ensuring sustainable development of the industry [7][8]. - Major Chinese battery manufacturers are expanding their production capacity overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe, which will enhance their global competitiveness and profitability [4][8].