Ge Long Hui·2026-01-15 14:28Core Viewpoint - The company expects a slight year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q4 2025, with a Non-GAAP net profit of approximately 480 million yuan, despite challenges in the electric product category due to subsidy reductions and high base effects [1][3]. Revenue Summary - Q4 revenue growth is pressured by the decline in subsidies for electric products, leading to a double-digit year-on-year decrease in this category, particularly affecting home appliances and digital products [2][3]. - Daily necessities and third-party (3P) revenue are expected to maintain double-digit growth in Q4, supported by healthy performance in supermarkets, fashion home goods, and health categories [2][3]. Profitability Summary - The company's Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 is projected to be around 480 million yuan, with a decline in retail operating profit attributed to subsidy reductions, changes in product mix, and increased costs from staff salary raises [3]. - Profitability is expected to improve in 2026, aided by continued government subsidies for appliance replacements and an expanded scope for digital product subsidies [2][3]. New Business Performance - The new business segment is expected to reduce losses in Q4, with improvements in delivery volume and user engagement (UE) for the takeaway service, indicating a stable overall performance [3]. Investment Recommendation - Given the impact of subsidy reductions on revenue and profit, the company has adjusted its Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 26.4 billion, 32.7 billion, and 51 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 125-150 HKD per share based on a 10-12x PE for 2026 [3].