中金 | 存款搬家重启，M1有望回升

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released December financial data indicating a mixed performance in credit growth, with corporate lending showing strength while household demand remains weak [1][2]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Data - New social financing in December was 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 646 billion yuan, with a stock growth rate down 0.2 percentage points to 8.3% [1]. - New RMB loans amounted to 910 billion yuan, an increase of 80 billion yuan year-on-year, with a stock growth rate of 6.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - Corporate loans saw a significant increase, with new corporate loans of 1.1 trillion yuan, up 580 billion yuan year-on-year, attributed to a low base from the previous year and policy support [2][3]. Group 2: Household Loan Demand - Household loans continued to show a year-on-year decrease, with a net reduction of 92 billion yuan in December, down 442 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating persistent weak consumer demand [2]. - Short-term household loans decreased by 161 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of decline, while medium to long-term loans also saw a reduction of 290 billion yuan, reflecting a lack of recovery in housing credit demand [2]. Group 3: Government Debt and Social Financing Growth - The slowdown in social financing growth was primarily due to a seasonal mismatch in government debt issuance, with new government bonds decreasing by 1.1 trillion yuan year-on-year [2]. - Despite the December decline, government debt issuance for the year increased by 2.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 39% of the total social financing increase for the year [2]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Signals - The PBOC announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rate for structural monetary policy tools, which is expected to contribute approximately 0.5 basis points to bank interest margins [4]. - The expansion of structural tools includes a total of 1 trillion yuan for agricultural and small enterprise loans, and an increase in the quota for technology innovation loans to 1.2 trillion yuan [4]. - The PBOC indicated that there is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, with expectations of a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 10-20 basis point cut in interest rates throughout the year [4]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The banking sector is expected to have sufficient credit project reserves for January, with credit issuance anticipated to remain stable or increase year-on-year [5]. - The weak demand for retail credit persists, linked to sluggish consumer and real estate demand, while demand in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors remains robust [5].