Gear Up for Alcoa (AA) Q4 Earnings: Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast Alcoa (AA) will report quarterly earnings of $0.95 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8.7%, with revenues expected to be $3.24 billion, down 7% from the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, there has been a 7.3% upward revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, indicating analysts' reassessment of their initial forecasts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue and Sales Projections - Analysts estimate 'Total sales- Alumina' at $1.32 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 46% [5]. - 'Total sales- Aluminum' is projected to reach $2.45 billion, reflecting a 28.9% increase from the prior-year quarter [5]. - 'Third-party sales- Bauxite' are expected to be $160.89 million, showing a 25.7% increase from the previous year [5]. Price and Cost Metrics - The estimated 'Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina' is projected at $334.30, down from $636.00 in the same quarter last year [6]. - The 'Average realized third-party price per metric ton of aluminum' is expected to be $3724.71, compared to $3006.00 in the same quarter of the previous year [7]. - Analysts forecast the 'Average cost per metric ton of aluminum shipped' to be $2679.38, slightly up from $2675.00 in the same quarter last year [7]. Production Estimates - 'Third-party alumina shipments' are expected to reach 2239 thousand metric tons, down from 2289 thousand metric tons reported in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Alumina production' is estimated at 2433 thousand metric tons, compared to 2390 thousand metric tons in the same quarter last year [9]. - 'Bauxite production' is projected at 10 million metric tons, up from 9 million metric tons reported in the same quarter last year [10]. Stock Performance - Alcoa shares have increased by 32.4% in the past month, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 2% increase, with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) indicating expected outperformance in the near term [11].